War Feinberg Forecast: Last Snapshot of Oscar Race Before Nomination Voting

War Feinberg Forecast: Last Snapshot of Oscar Race Before Nomination Voting

War

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners

Belfast (Focus, Nov. 12, trailer) AFI*, CCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG

West Side Story (Disney, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR

The Power of the Dog (Netflix, Nov. 17, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA

King Richard (Warner Bros., Nov. 19, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG

Don’t Look Up (Netflix, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG

CODA (Apple, Aug. 13, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, SAG

Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA, Nov. 26, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR

Dune (Warner Bros., Oct. 22, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR

Tick, Tick … Boom! (Netflix, Nov. 19, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA

Nightmare Alley (Searchlight, Dec. 17, trailer) AFI, CCA, NBR

Possibilities

House of Gucci (MGM/UA, Nov. 24, trailer) SAG

Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus, Nov. 24, trailerLAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC

Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics, Dec. 24, trailer)

The Hand of God (Netflix, Dec. 3, trailer)

Being the Ricardos (Amazon, Dec. 10, trailer)

The Lost Daughter (Netflix, Dec. 17, trailer) FI, IFP

Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony, Dec. 17, trailer)

Longer Shots

No Time to Die (MGM/UA, Oct. 8, trailer)

The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple, Dec. 25, trailer) AFI, NBR

Flee (Neon/Participant, Dec. 3, trailer)

C’mon C’mon (A24, Nov. 19, trailer) FI

Cyrano (MGM/UA, Feb. 25, 2022, trailer)

The French Dispatch (Searchlight, Oct. 22, trailer)

Last Night in Soho (Focus, Oct. 29, trailer)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners


Kenneth Branagh (BelfastCCA, HFPA


Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, NYFCC

Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) — podcast CCA, HFPA


Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) CCA, NBR

Denis Villeneuve (Dune) — podcast CCA, HFPA

Possibilities

Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley) — podcast CCA


Pedro Almodóvar (Parallel Mothers) — podcast


Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) NSFC


Paolo Sorrentino (The Hand of God)


Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) — podcast


Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard)


Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) FI, HFPA, IFP

Longer Shots


Sian Heder (CODA)


Julia Ducournau (Titane)


Asghar Farhadi (A Hero) — podcast


Lin-Manuel Miranda (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast


Aaron Sorkin (Being the Ricardos) — podcast


Ridley Scott (House of Gucci) — podcast


Mike Mills (C’mon C’mon) FI

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners


Will Smith (King Richard) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG


Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG


Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NYFCC, SAG


Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG


Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)

Possibilities


Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) HFPA, SAG


Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) HFPA


Jude Hill (Belfast)


Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon C’mon) IFP


Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) — podcast CCA, HFPA


Nicolas Cage (Pig) — podcast CCA

Simon Rex (Red Rocket) — podcast FI, IFP, LAFCA

Longer Shots


Hidetoshi Nishijima (Drive My Car) NSFC


Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza) HFPA


Adam Driver (House of Gucci) — podcast


Mahershala Ali (Swan Song) — podcast HFPA


Daniel Craig (No Time to Die) — podcast


Ansel Elgort (West Side Story)


Riz Ahmed (Encounter)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners


Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG


Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) — podcast CCA, HFPA, IFP, SAG

Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NYFCC, SAG


Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) LAFCA, NSFC


Kristen Stewart (Spencer) — podcast CCA, HFPA

Possibilities

Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG


Jennifer Hudson (Respect) SAG

Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)


Emilia Jones (CODA)


Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Longer Shots


Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) HFPA, NBR


Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza) CCA, HFPA


Jennifer Lawrence (Don’t Look Up) — podcast HFPA


Tessa Thompson (Passing) IFP


Jodie Comer (The Last Duel) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners


Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, NYFCC, SAG


Troy Kotsur (CODA) CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP, SAG


Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) SAG

Jamie Dornan (Belfast) CCA, HFPA


Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) CCA, HFPA, NBR

Possibilities


Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)


Jared Leto (House of Gucci) — podcast CCA, SAG


Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) — podcast HFPA, SAG


J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) CCA


Woody Norman (C’mon C’mon)


Mark Rylance (Don’t Look Up)


Andrew Garfield (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)

Longer Shots


Mike Faist (West Side Story)


David Alvarez (West Side Story)


Jonah Hill (Don’t Look Up)


Anders Danielsen Lie (The Worst Person in the World) NSFC


Robin de Jesus (Tick, Tick … Boom!)


Jon Bernthal (King Richard)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners


Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, SAG


Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, SAG


Caitriona Balfe (Belfast) CCA, HFPA, SAG

Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) — podcast SAG


Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NBR

Possibilities


Marlee Matlin (CODA) IFP


Ruth Negga (Passing) — podcast FI, HFPA, IFP, NSFC, SAG


Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) FI, IFP


Rita Moreno (West Side Story) — podcast CCA


Judi Dench (Belfast) — podcast

Longer Shots


Gaby Hoffmann (C’mon C’mon) IFP


Meryl Streep (Don’t Look Up) — podcast


Nina Arianda (Being the Ricardos)


Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth) NYFCC

Anya Taylor-Joy (Last Night in Soho)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners

The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion) CCA, HFPA, USC

Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve) CCA, USC

The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal) CCA, FI, IFP, USC

West Side Story (Tony Kushner) CCA

Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe) LAFCA, NSFC

Possibilities

Passing (Rebecca Hall) IFP, USC

The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen) NBR, USC

CODA (Sian Heder) CCA


Nightmare Alley
(Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan) — podcast (del Toro)

The Tender Bar (William Monahan)

House of Gucci (Roberto Bentivegna & Becky Johnston)

Longer Shots

Tick, Tick … Boom!
(Steven Levenson)

Cyrano (Erica Schmidt)

The Last Duel (Ben Affleck, Matt Damon & Nicole Holofcener)

The Green Knight (David Lowery) FI


Spider-Man: No Way Home
(Chris McKenna and Erik Sommers)

In the Heights (Quiara Alegría Hudes)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners

Belfast (Kenneth Branagh) CCA, HFPA

Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson) CCA, HFPA, NYFCC

Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota) — podcast (McKay) CCA, HFPA

Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast CCA, HFPA

Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar) — podcast

Possibilities

King Richard (Zach Baylin) CCA

C’mon Cmon (Mike Mills) FI

The Hand of God (Paolo Sorrentino)

The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola & Jason Schwartzman)

Last Night in Soho (Krysty Wilson-Cairns & Edgar Wright)

A Hero (Asghar Farhadi) — podcast NBR

Longer Shots

The Worst Person in the World (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt)

The Card Counter (Paul Schrader) IFP

Zola (Janicza Bravo & Jeremy O. Harris) FI

Red Rocket (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker) IFP

The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel & Boaz Yakin)

Titane (Julia Ducournau)

*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*

Frontrunners

Encanto (Disney) ANN, CCA, HFPA, NBR

The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Netflix) ANN, CCA, NYFCC

Flee (Neon/Participant) ANN, CCA, HFPA, LAFCA

Luca (Pixar) ANN, CCA, HFPA

Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney) ANN, CCA, HFPA

Possibilities

Sing 2 (Illumination/Universal) ANN

Belle (GKIDS) ANN

My Sunny Maad (Negativ) HFPA

Vivo (Netflix)

Longer Shots


The Summit of the Gods
(Netflix) ANN


Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko
(GKIDS) ANN

Pompo: The Cinephile (GKIDS) ANN

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners

Summer of Soul (Hulu/Searchlight) AFI*, CCA, CEH, FI, IDA, IFP, LAFCA, NBR, PGA


Flee
(Neon/Participant) CCA, CEH, FI, IDA, IFP, NBR, NSFC, NYFCC, PGA

Ascension (MTV) CCA, CEH, FI, IFP, NBR, PGA

Attica (Showtime) CCA, NBR

The Rescue (Nat Geo) CCA, CEH, NBR, PGA

Possibilities

Simple as Water (HBO) PGA

The Velvet Underground (Apple) — podcast (Todd Haynes) CEH

Procession (Netflix) CCA, FI

The First Wave (Neon) — podcast (Matthew Heineman) PGA

Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry (Apple)

Longer Shots


In the Same Breath
 (HBO) FI, IDA, PGA

Writing With Fire (Music Box) IDA, PGA

Faya Dayi (Janus Films) CEH, IDA, IFP

President (Greenwich) IFP

Julia (Sony Classics)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners

Drive My Car (Japan) CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP

The Hand of God (Italy) CCA, HFPA

The Worst Person in the World (Norway) CCA, IFP, NBR, NYFCC

A Hero (Iran) — podcast (Asghar Farhadi) CCA, HFPA, NBR

Flee (Denmark) CCA

Possibilities

Compartment No. 6 (Finland) FI, HFPA


Great Freedom
(Austria)


Prayers for the Stolen
 (Mexico) FI

Lamb (Iceland) NBR

I’m Your Man (Germany)

Longer Shots

The Good Boss (Spain)

Playground (Belgium)

Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

Hive (Kosovo)


Plaza Catedral
(Panama)

*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*

Frontrunners

West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski) CCA, NYFCC

Dune (Greig Fraser) CCA, CI

The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner) CCA, LAFCA

The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel) CCA, CI, NBR

Belfast (Haris Zambarloukos) CCA

Possibilities

Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen) CCA

No Time to Die (Linus Sandgren)

C’mon C’mon (Robbie Ryan) CI

Cyrano (Seamus McGarvey)

The Green Knight (Andrew Droz Palermo) NSFC

Don’t Look Up (Linus Sandgren)

Last Night in Soho (Chung Chung-hoon)

The French Dispatch (Robert Yeoman)


The Last Duel
 (Dariusz Wolski)


House of Gucci
(Dariusz Wolski)

Longer Shots

Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson & Michael Bauman)

Passing (Edu Grau) FI

Drive My Car (Hidetoshi Shinomiya)

Spencer (Claire Mathon)


King Richard
(Robert Elswit)

Titane (Ruben Impens)


Tick, Tick … Boom!
(Alice Brooks)


Being the Ricardos
(Jeff Cronenweth)

Spider-Man: No Way Home (Mauro Fiore)

*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*

Frontrunners

West Side Story (Paul Tazewell) CCA

Dune (Robert Morgan & Jacqueline West) CCA

Cruella (Jenny Beavan) CCA

Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira) CCA

The French Dispatch (Milena Canonero)

Possibilities


Licorice Pizza
(Mark Bridges)


Coming 2 America
(Ruth E. Carter)


House of Gucci
(Janty Yates) CCA

Spencer (Jacqueline Durran)


Last Night in Soho
(Odile Dicks-Mireaux)


Cyrano
 (Massimo Cantini Parrini)

Longer Shots

Belfast (Charlotte Walker)


The Power of the Dog
(Kirsty Cameron)

Mothering Sunday (Sandy Powell)


The Tragedy of Macbeth
(Mary Zophres)


Being the Ricardos
 (Susan Lyall)

Passing (Marci Rodgers)

*BEST FILM EDITING*

Frontrunners


Dune
(Joe Walker) CCA

West Side Story (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn) CCA

Belfast (Una Ni Dhonghaile) CCA

The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras) CCA


No Time to Die
(Tom Cross & Elliot Graham)

Possibilities

Summer of Soul (Joshua L. Pearson) LAFCA

Spider-Man: No Way Home (Leigh Folsom & Jeffrey Ford)

Licorice Pizza (Andy Jurgensen)

Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)

Tick, Tick … Boom! (Myron Kerstein & Andrew Weisblum)


The Lost Daughter
(Affonso Gonçalves)

The Hand of God (Cristiano Travaglioli)

The French Dispatch (Andrew Weisblum)

Longer Shots

CODA (Geraud Brisson)

House of Gucci (Claire Simpson)

King Richard (Pamela Martin)

Being the Ricardos (Alan Baumgarten) CCA

Nightmare Alley (Cam McLauchlin)

Last Night in Soho (Paul Machliss)

The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen & Lucian Johnston)

Titane (Jean-Christophe Bouzy)

*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING*

Frontrunners

Dune CCA, MUHS


West Side Story
MUHS


Cruella
 CCA, MUHS

The Eyes of Tammy Faye CCA, MUHS

No Time to Die MUHS

Possibilities

House of Gucci CCA, MUHS


Nightmare Alley
 CCA

Coming 2 America MUHS


The Suicide Squad
MUHS


Cyrano

*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*

Frontrunners

Dune (Hans Zimmer) CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL

The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood) CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL


The French Dispatch
 (Alexandre Desplat) HFPA, HMMA, SCL

Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell) CCA, HMMA, SCL

King Richard (Kris Bowers) HMMA

Possibilities

No Time to Die (Hans Zimmer) HMMA

Spencer (Jonny Greenwood) CCA, SCL

Encanto (Germaine Franco) HFPA, SCL

Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias) HFPA, HMMA, LAFCA, SCL

The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel)

Longer Shots

The Last Duel (Harry Gregson-Williams) HMMA

The Tragedy of Macbeth (Carter Burwell) HMMA

The Green Knight (Daniel Hart) SCL

Being the Ricardos (Daniel Pemberton)

Candyman (Robert A.A. Lowe)

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Frontrunners


“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die) — podcast CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL


“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” — Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson & Carole King (Respect) HFPA, HMMA, SCL


“Guns Go Bang” — Jay-Z, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Jeymes Samuel (The Harder They Fall) CCA, HMMA, SCL


“Just Look Up” — Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Taura Stinson (Don’t Look Up) CCA, HMMA, SCL


“So May We Start” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael (Annette)

Possibilities


“Your Song Saved My Life” — Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, Larry Mullen Jr. (Sing 2) — podcast [Bono & The Edge] HMMA


“Be Alive” — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott (King Richard) CCA, HFPA, HMMA


“Down to Joy” — Van Morrison (Belfast) HFPA, HMMA


“Automatic Woman” — H.E.R., Van Hun & Starrah (Bruised) — podcast


“Dos Oruguitas” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto) — podcast CCA, HFPA

Longer Shots


“Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren (Four Good Days) — podcast HMMA, SCL


“Beyond the Shore” — Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder & Marius de Vries (CODA) HMMA


“The Anonymous Ones” — Benj Pasek, Justin Paul & Amandla Stenberg (Dear Evan Hansen)

“Dream Girl” — Idina Menzel & Laura Veltz (Cinderella)


“Right Where I Belong” — Brian Wilson & Jim James (Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road) HMMA

*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*

Frontrunners

Dune
(Zsuzsanna Sipos & Patrice Vermette) CCA

West Side Story (Rena DeAngelo & Adam Stockhausen) CCA


Belfast
(Jim Clay & Claire Nina Richards) CCA

The French Dispatch (Rena DeAngelo & Adam Stockhausen) CCA

Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau) CCA

Possibilities


Cruella
(Fiona Crumbie & Alice Felton)


Cyrano
(Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)


The Power of the Dog
(Grant Major & Amber Richards)


Licorice Pizza
(Florencia Martin & Ryan Watson)


The Tragedy of Macbeth
(Stefan Dechant & Nancy Haigh)


Last Night in Soho
(Victoria Allwood, Judy Farr & Emily Norris)

Longer Shots

Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sam Avila & Darren Gilford)


Being the Ricardos
(Ellen Brill & Jon Hutman)

Spencer (Guy Hendrix-Dyas & Yesim Zolan)


House of Gucci
(Arthur Max & Letizia Santucci)


The Last Duel
 (Judy Farr & Arthur Max)


Passing
(Nora Mendis & Paige Mitchell)

*BEST SOUND*

Frontrunners


West Side Story


Dune


No Time to Die


Belfast


Tick, Tick… Boom!

Possibilities


Spider-Man: No Way Home


A Quiet Place Part II


The Power of the Dog


Last Night in Soho


The Matrix Resurrections

*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*

Frontrunners

Dune CCA, VES


No Time to Die
CCA


The Matrix Resurrections
CCA, VES


Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
CCA, VES


Spider-Man: No Way Home

Possibilities


Godzilla vs. Kong
VES


Eternals


Black Widow


Ghostbusters: Afterlife


Free Guy

*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*

Shortlist (alphabetical)

Affairs of the Art


Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice


Bad Seeds


Bestia
ANN


Boxballet


Flowing Home


Mum Is Pouring Rain


The Musician


Namoo


Only a Child


Robin Robin


Souvenir Souvenir


Step Into the River


Us Again


The Windshield Wiper

*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*

Shortlist (alphabetical)


Águilas


Audible


A Broken House


Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis


Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker


Day of Rage


The Facility


Lead Me Home


Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day”


The Queen of Basketball


Sophie & the Baron


Takeover


Terror Contagion


Three Songs for Benazir


When We Were Bullies

*BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT*

Shortlist (alphabetical)

Ala Kachuu — Take and Run


Censor of Dreams


The Criminals


Distances


The Dress


Frimas


Les Grandes Claques


The Long Goodbye


On My Mind


Please Hold


Stenofonen


Tala’vision


Under the Heavens


When the Sun Sets


You’re Dead Helen

Read More

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.