Decades of polling have suggested that, in general, more Americans sympathize with the Democratic Party than with the Republican Party. This advantage has been so durable that it’s become conventional wisdom in American politics. But a recent Gallup poll shows Republicans taking the lead over Democrats, 47 percent to 42 percent, in terms of how Americans identify. The poll has been the subject of plenty of commentary, and in this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether those takeaways and underlying data are a “good or bad use of polling.”
The team also talks about the Senate races in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia and New Hampshire and debates which are most important in determining control of the upper chamber next year.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.
Galen Druke is FiveThirtyEight’s podcast producer and reporter. @galendruke
Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. @natesilver538
Sarah Frostenson is FiveThirtyEight’s politics editor. @sfrostenson
Geoffrey Skelley is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. @geoffreyvs